.Sergio Ermotti, chief executive officer of UBS GroupStefan Wermuth|Bloomberg|Getty ImagesZURICH, Switzerland u00ea u00b7 UBS chief executive officer Sergio Ermotti pointed out Wednesday that market volatility can increase in the second half of the year, but he does certainly not strongly believe the united state is heading into a recession.Global equities observed sharp sell-offs recently as real estate investors digested unstable economical records out of the U.S. which brought up worries regarding a financial decline in the world's most extensive economic climate. It also questioned concerning whether the Federal Reserve needed to have to become a lot less hawkish along with its own monetary policy standpoint. The reserve bank kept rates on hold in late July at a 23-year high.When asked them about the expectation for the USA economic condition, Ermotti stated: "Certainly not essentially a financial crisis, but most definitely a lag is feasible."" The macroeconomic indicators are unclear adequate to refer to recessions, and actually, it is actually possibly early. What we understand is actually that the Fed has enough capability to step in and support that, although it's heading to take a while, whatever they do to become then transferred in to the economic situation," the CEO informed CNBC on Wednesday after the financial institution disclosed its second-quarter results.UBS counts on that the Federal Get are going to reduce fees through a minimum of fifty manner factors this year. Presently, traders are actually split between a 50 and also a 25 manner factor cut at the Fed's following appointment in September, depending on to LSEG data.Speaking to CNBC, Ermotti said that our company are actually probably to see much higher market volatility in the second half of the year, somewhat due to the U.S. political election in November." That's one element, but additionally, if I look at the total geopolitical photo, if I examine the macroeconomic image, what we found in the final number of full weeks in terms of volatility, which, in my standpoint, is a clear indicator of the frailty of some components of the device, u00e2 $ u00a6 one must anticipate absolutely a greater degree of volatility," he said.Another unpredictability moving forward is monetary plan and whether central banks will certainly have to cut costs even more boldy to battle a downturn in the economic climate. In Switzerland, where UBS is headquartered, the central bank has actually cut prices two times this year. The European Reserve Bank as well as the Financial Institution of England have both announced one cut up until now." Knowing the events which are theu00c2 unknowns on the horizon like the united state presidential election, our experts ended up being satisfied along with an extremely reduced dryness, right now our team are actually shifting to a more normal regime," Bruno Verstraete, founder of Lakefield Wide range Monitoring informed CNBC Wednesday." In the context of UBS, [more dryness is actually] certainly not automatically a negative trait, since more dryness implies even more investing revenue," he incorporated.